Архив

Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Cheers to Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook for building an incredible business and whose reward today is hugely deserved and exciting to watch.

2) April Housing Starts back above 700k for 4th month in the past 6 at 717k, above est of 685k and March revised up by 45k to 699k.

3) After rising from 19 to 28 thru the winter months and falling to 24 in April, the May NAHB home builder survey rises to 29, the best in 5 yrs.

4) Refi apps up by 13% with new low in mortgage rates.

5) NY mfr’g in May rises to 17.1 from 6.6 in April but still down from 20.2 in March and 6 month outlook falls to 29.3 from 43.1.

6) Old news but Q1 GDP in Germany surprises to upside and region sees flat Q1 growth instead of expected contraction. That will certainly change in Q2.

7) China cuts RRR again, market though yawns.

8) UK jobless claims unexpectedly falls.

Negatives:

1) Europe again the main concern as Greek stocks fall another 10% and new PSI bonds sell to lows as bank run fears spread and we have to wait another month for new elections. Spanish IBEX down 6% as Bankia falls 15%. MIB lower by 7% and both Spanish and Italian bond yields jump and Spanish CDS goes to new high.

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Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

The Face of Genocidal Eco-Fascism

I am not exaggerating.

This is Finnish writer Pentti Linkola — a man who demands that the human population reduce its size to around 500 million and abandon modern technology and the pursuit of economic growth — in his own words.

He likens Earth today to an overflowing lifeboat:

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The latest in our annual Megatrends report series – Mobile Megatrends 2012 focuses on 9 major trends, showing how the software world is impacting the mobile business. Researched and compiled by VisionMobile.

Mobile megatrends 2012
View more presentations from VisionMobile

by VisionMobile on May 11, 2012

Well, better late than never.

Note: these are not our trades.

A few days ago we suggested that this action by LCH.Clearnet was only a matter of time. Sure enough, as of minutes ago the bond clearer hiked margins on all Spanish bonds with a duration of more than 1.25 years. Net result: the Spanish Banks which by now are by far the largest single group holder of Spanish bonds, has to post even more collateral beginning May 25. Only problem with that: it very well may not have the collateral.

And as a reminder: Ponzi PatriotismTM

So stepping aside from the biggest aggregator of private data for a few minutes, and focusing on what actually matters, here is Citigroup telling our European readers who have those fancy multi-colored bills in their wallets, that they are in deep trouble.

To summarize from Citi:

• There are many scenarios for a Greek exit;  almost all of them are likely to be EUR negative for an extended period
• Some scenarios could be positive in equilibrium but the run-up to the new equilibrium could be nasty, brutal and long 
• The positive scenarios for the euro involve aggressive reduction of tail risk; none of these seem likely
• It is unlikely that central banks busily substitute EUR for USD in their portfolios during periods of intense political uncertainty.

Full note from Stephen Englander

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Remember there is no short-selling - only long-adds and long-exits. Syndicate fall back...26.7mm shares at $38.00, 9mm shares at $39.00, and 42mm at $40.00 - leaves a VWAP (or average price at which everyone is in Facebook) at $40.36 (green arrow) with over $10.5b billion traded so far as over 60% of the float has 'turned-over' this morning.

Did Facebook go public today, really?  Wow, can I read another article about fb. 

Just like that Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) is public.  Its trading at $41 and up 9% on this fine Friday.  Go buy it now because their business model makes perfect sense.

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All Hail to the great Moolaram
He`s leading the world`s biggest scam
This demon of money
Makes things appear sunny
By printing when we`re in a jam

The Limerick King

Click to enlarge:

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Source: NASA

Home prices fell in a record number of Chinese cities in April (46 out of 70) according to the National Bureau of Statistics, with Wenzhou prices down -12.3% YoY, being the worst. There does not seem to be any respite. Nationwide prices are -1.2% lower YoY in April – in reality much, much lower.
Car dealers have reduced prices, following the ending of tax incentives by the government, which were introduced in 2009 and as a result of sharply rising inventories. Chinese total vehicle sales declined by -1.3% in the January to April period, the worst since 1998.
Analysts (Goldman’s, JPM UBS, and CITI) have reduced Chinese GDP forecasts for the current year – Goldman’s has cut this year’s GDP to 8.1%, from 8.6% previously – still too high in my humble view. Goldman’s suggest that the PBoC will cut interest rates if inflation falls below 3.0%. The recent decline in Oil prices helps materially;

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If you just submitted an order to buy FB today, and were confident the order was executed even if at market, you may be out of luck:

• NASDAQ HAS PROBLEM DELIVERING FACEBOOK TRADE EXECUTION MESSAGES

What this means is that the exchange at this point is deciding whether or not to send back late executions to all people who bought, or thought they bought. Needless to say this means that the indicated price is likely not the real price if one factors for all the latent orders, on both the bid and offer side, unless of course all those orders get cancelled, further eroding confident in the market, only this time hitting that one segment most disenchanted with the stock market - mom and pop.

 
The Elite Financial Players Are Manipulating the Game So that They Get the Stimulus ... and the Little Guy Gets the Austerity

Liberal economists and financial wonks say that we need to learn the lesson from the 1930s and stimulate more to unnecessarily avoid falling back into a very deep economic abyss.

Conservative economists and financial gurus say that we need to tighten our belts and live within our means, or the tsunami of debt will wipe out our prosperity, and that of our children and grandchildren.

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$38.00 Syndicate bid holding...high was $45.00 - 200mm shares traded

FB getting very flashy crashy here...

Filed under: Trading Tagged: good dancing, music, whtie wives

I just got off the plane from Europe. I went there because I wanted to see the effects of the French election as well as get an "on the ground" perspective of what's really happening in Europe.

I can tell you, the situation in Europe is far FAR worse than the media is even willing to acknowledge.

See below:

The above image was taken at 9PM on Paris’ Avenue de Champs-Élysées (the road leading to the Arc de Triumph) on May 8th, the night Socialist Francois Hollande beat Nicolas Sarkozy.

This is a major four-way intersection, come to an almost complete gridlock as Parisian youth park their cars to block traffic.

The sound was deafening as these kids honked their horns, screamed, sang songs, and waved flags. Did they care about traffic? Nope. Some of them even got out on top of their cars to smoke and dance (like the young man in the white pants in the image above).

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Now that, thank God, the Facebook IPO is behind us, effective immediately, new Federal regulations expressly ban the following terms within the fifty United States and its territories:

Any ostensibly clever use of the word "Like" (e.g. "Investors 'Like' This IPO")

Adidas flip-flops

Any reference to Sean Parker

Any reference to the renouncement of U.S. citizenship by Eduardo Saverin

"Harvard dorm"

"Zuck"

"Hoodie"

 Your compliance is expected.

From the $38 IPO price, we open at $42.05 (now at $40.1) but we note that in Germany it has tumbled from well over EUR90 earlier. We get the sense the media is disappointed, but of course they will be talking longer-term now and defending a weaker-than-expected open: CNBC: "I just want to make sure we don't whip ourselves into a frenzy on the short term value." - perhaps a little late for that eh?

and 5 mins later...defending $40 like crazy...

Germany's pre-US-open pricing...

Yes, we are all waiting for what is increasingly becoming an epic disaster. In the meantime there is this:

• TRADERS FOR FACEBOOK HAVING PROBLEMS CHANGING/CANCELING ORDERS:WSJ...

We believe CANCELING is the operative word. Of course, Europe is about to close which according to some may be the catalyst. In other news, nobody even dare think, let alone whipser "Market Conditions"

I got up at 3 am PST for this so watch it!

Somehow 100 million retail investors are smarter than the bond king.

Source

Update: $42, $43.25, $45, $44

Well, Europe appears to have been off by "a little", as usual.

Presented with little comment as JPMorgan, Citi, and Morgan Stanley (and JEF) are now down year-to-date (after being up 35-40% just a few weeks ago) and catching up to the credit reality that we have been so vociferous about...

and finally - XLF has caught up to credit...

Chart: Bloomberg

Help us Sarah Connor, you're our only hope.

Source: NYSE Liffe